On April 6, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced its first monetary policy decision of the financial year 2023-24. Going against widespread market expectations, it decided to hold the repo rate at 6.5%, pausing the rate hike cycle that began in May 2022. Unfortunately, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) statement does not fully explain why. All we can, therefore, do is speculate about the possible reasons behind this pause and discuss what MPC may need to do going forward.
Let's start by understanding what has changed since the last MPC meeting of February 8. There have been three main developments.
First, inflation pressures have arguably increased. Back in February, when MPC raised the repo (or policy) rate by 25 basis points, the latest data (for December 2022) showed that headline inflation had moderated to 5.7%, whereas going into the latest meeting headline, consumer price index (CPI) inflation had gone up to 6.4% in February 2023. In the run-up to both meetings, core inflation (non-food, non-fuel) remained elevated above 6%, the upper-limit of RBI’s tolerance band.
Second, the global economic environment has become significantly more uncertain compared to February, because of the turmoil in the financial markets in the US and European Union. With the collapse of a few mid-sized banks in the US and the forced take-over of the systemically important Credit Suisse by UBS, financial stability concerns resurfaced, which in turn, complicated the tasks of central bankers.
Third, the rupee-to-dollar exchange rate stabilised in recent weeks, after depreciating chronically in 2022, largely because markets now expect the US Federal Reserve to be less aggressive. The Fed has been tightening monetary policy since the start of 2022, increasing its policy rate from essentially zero to 5%, to rein in inflation which shot up to 9%, the highest in four decades. Arguably, this aggressive tightening triggered the financial instability in the US. The ensuing chaos prompted analysts to expect that the Fed will now slow down the pace of rate hikes in order to balance financial stability concerns with inflation control.
Which of these factors can help explain MPC's latest pause?
Clearly, it was not the first factor, given that inflation is still far from under control. RBI is legally mandated to bring headline CPI inflation down to 4%. Its inflation forecast for 2023-24 is 5.2%, implying that the central bank expects that inflation will remain well above target for the second consecutive year. What is more worrisome is that underlying (core) inflation is likely to be even higher, persistently hovering around 6% for several years now. The MPC statement recognises these problems, stressing the “importance of low and stable prices” and “not letting the guard down on price stability”, while pointing out that work needs to be done to “[anchor] inflation expectations” and “rein in generalisation of price pressures”. Yet, despite such a hawkish assessment, it did not vote in favour of a rate hike.
Why not? One possibility could be that the previous repo rate increases have not been fully passed on by banks to their lending and borrowing rates. So the central bank might have decided that the priority should now shift to ensuring that monetary transmission improves, either by tightening bank liquidity or exhorting banks to raise their rates. But there was no sign of any such initiative in the MPC statement.
So maybe the second factor, global uncertainty, played a key role? Perhaps RBI was worried that problems abroad could weigh on India’s growth? Apparently not. The central bank actually increased its 2023-24 GDP growth forecast, albeit marginally, to 6.5%, indicating that growth worries were likely not the major factor driving its decision.
Perhaps, then, exchange rate factors played the key role. It is certainly striking that RBI’s actions over the past year seem to have been mirroring those of the Fed. When the Fed was aggressively raising rates during 2022, RBI kept increasing its repo rate. And when the Fed decided in 2023 to slow down the pace of rate hikes, RBI responded by pausing. Hence, it is possible that there is some link between US and Indian monetary policy, perhaps motivated by a desire to protect the exchange rate by ensuring that rupee interest rates remain significantly higher than those in the US.
If indeed the pause was driven more by exchange rate factors than by domestic inflation – though RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said that monetary policy was driven by domestic factors, not international – then it needs some reflection. External considerations should not distract RBI from its primary objective of restoring price stability in the domestic economy. Traditionally, ensuring that the exchange rate remained stable against the US dollar could aid in this task, as US inflation used to be low. But times have changed. As long as inflation in developed economies remains elevated, India runs the risk of importing this high inflation.
Consequently, achieving the inflation target will require RBI to focus on exerting downward pressure on domestic inflation, especially now that high core inflation has become entrenched in the system. In particular, MPC needs to ensure that the real interest rate (the difference between the repo rate and core inflation) is firmly in positive territory if there is to be any chance of breaking the persistence of core inflation. Currently, the real rate is barely there.
Persistently high inflation hurts the poor the most. Volatile inflation can be inimical to growth, a troubling possibility given that India’s medium-term growth prospects look uncertain. Therefore, inflation control remains crucial to India’s future. Unfortunately the monetary policy decision did not throw much light on RBI’s plan to bring inflation down.
No comments:
Post a Comment